FOMC decides not to raise interest rates and sparks a rally in Biotech stocks? August 22nd, 2000

"FOMC unleashes Biotechs"

That was the headline this afternoon from CBS MarketWatch. We disagree, Biotech stocks were simply oversold and a rally almost certainly had to take place just as we believed it would a couple of days ago. The FED also did just what almost everyone expected by making no move on interest rates today while expressing continued vigilance against inflationary factors and reserving the right to raise interest rates. Sounds like we are going to have to wait another quarter or so before the FED makes any move at all to us. In fact it is very likely that the FED will wait until after the election in November and perhaps even the inauguration before it eventually does what any self-respecting long investor hopes for and lowers interests rates.

So what does that leave us with in the meantime?

Trading Opportunities!

We believe we will see lots of good trading opportunities before the FED does anything and it's a good way to make some money off stocks that are going to be limited in terms of absolute gains until the market improves. Recent stocks mentioned by us have faired pretty well like BGEN, which we plugged at 54. Today BGEN closed at 69 5/8, and we would happily recommend some profit taking in a stock that has gained well over 25% and is now trending off the upper Bollinger Band. Don't get us wrong, we love BGEN long term, trading around a long position here and retaining a core position should prove very profitable, but 25% in any single stock while limiting your losses to 15% over time in those that do go down is going to make you a winning investor. Why not check the Biotech List for other opportunities? We would love to add more CEGE at 21 or so for instance.

But it's not just Biotech's, stocks in all kinds of technology sectors are offering opportunities for selective buying for those with reasonable profit expectations. It took a while for instance but we also saw a 25% gain on Wireless Sector stock AMPD which managed to move to 4 � today. We took our profit and recommend that our readers use swings like these to raise additional cash for the stocks that become oversold just as AMPD was at 2 5/8's (Our position was bought at 3 1/8, out today at 3 15/16's). It's not that we were not impressed by today's news but rather that the market is going to limit gains for most stocks until interest rates actually begin to decline. We believe that in this market it's important to take a gain and shop for an oversold stock while you wait for another good entry point on a stock like AMPD. We also picked up a little ANAD today and would love to add more at a lower level. We believe this stock got overly hammered due to wireless component shortages that slowed demand from its number one customer. Long term this will work just fine while ANAD makes up earnings from other customers in our opinion. The stock closed at 30 1/16 today and is now on Individual Investors America's 100 fastest growing companies list. It can be found on numerous lists at the Bull Sector. However our stock recommendations may not be to your liking at all.

So what do you as an investor do? You could try doing as we are doing and find a sector that really interests you and study the stocks within it. Run some charts using the basic technical analysis that we hope you have been studying and trade for reasonable gains while we wait for a real rally to lift the market. Look for undervalued and oversold sectors like the stocks in the Wireless Sector or more specifically the Cellular Stocks.

The Wireless List

The Cellular List

Component shortages and trimmed back growth rates have really resulted in an awful lot of oversold stocks. The only thing we don't like is the huge floats on many of these stocks but lets be serious� We are headed towards a wireless world so long term many an investment in this sector will pay off. Short term we believe ample trading opportunities are now present for those willing to be patient in many a sector.

Buy those stocks that have low relative strengths (20% or less if possible) but possess small floats and the potential for a news-induced rally. By trading into the rallies you will find that you have plenty of cash available to buy good stocks well off 52-week highs. It's either that or we advise that you keep funding your technology mutual funds because in the long run it will pay off handsomely. Oh sure, eventually the Bull Market will resume in full force but for now interest rates are simply to high to spark a long term rally.

The Bull Sector does not email updates on a daily basis even though our lists are constantly being updated to help you with your own research. As such the daily column is only updated when a significant new list is added or a real event like the FOMC meeting takes place and actual commentary is worthwhile.

New Drug and Gene Therapy Lists as of August 14th, 2000:

Well it's been a long hard summer waiting for the Bull Market to return to technology stocks and we are getting tired of waiting but while we wait we have been busy so several new lists and a multitude of new stocks have been added at the Bull Sector.

We have taken the time to attempt to separate numerous stocks that have been listed within the Biotechnology and Drug Stock Sector because we believe that there should be a distinction. We have therefore been rounding out the Bull Sector Biotechnology List, and creating sub sectors, while at the same time creating a Drug Stock List that is composed of over 200 Drug/Pharmaceutical Stocks. The companies on the Drug List fall into a broad category of companies that develop, manufacture and distribute Drugs/Pharmaceuticals or Healthcare products. Some of these companies are developing novel Drug treatments others Generic Drug treatments, or methods of delivering Drug Therapies and a great number of these companies are profitable and may therefore be well worth looking at as possible investments.

Many IPO's are still hot these days despite the summer slowdown as is evidenced by an 80% rise in Biotech Stock DYAX today. As such a number of new stocks have been added to the Bull Sector including several to the Human Genome Stock List which we will be renaming the Genomics List. There have been an incredible number of Biotech IPO's this summer and although the Biotech Sector certainly remains well off its highs from early this year we continue to work towards rounding out the more notable sub sectors adding a Gene Therapy List today.

Last year there was a very notable disaster in resulting in a death during a Gene Therapy trial:

The Scientist

But there have also been some great successes and it would be remiss on our part not to have created such a list. The Gene Therapy Market is forecast to grow to between $1 billion to $5 billion by 2003 with a total market exceeding $45 billion by 2010,'' according to Leo O'Connor, manager of Technical Insights' Futuretech program. We hope you will check out the stocks on the Gene Therapy List that includes ARIA, which rose almost 40% today on news that they have made progress towards developing a small molecule drug that could potentially prevent osteoporosis.

New additions to the Bull Sector VOIP List today: August 1th, 2000:

The companies on the Bull Sector VOIP List provide Internet Telephony Software and Hardware Solutions. Internet Protocol phone calls are cheaper than normal PSTN calls due to increased compression that can allow at a minimum six times as many phone calls to be sent over the same amount of bandwidth. Many traditional long distance carriers are now using dedicated IP companies to handle their international long distance calls. ITXC and IBAS wholesale International IP phone calls and have been seeing tremendous revenue growth. LVLT, Q and VYTL are building fiber optic networks that will carry VOIP. According to Frost & Sullivan, a leading market research firm estimates the total market for IP Telephony equipment to reach $10 billion by 2005; in 1998, this market generated $279 million in revenue. These numbers could be conservative because as increased bandwidth reaches the masses VOIP will become increasingly popular as the cost of an individual phone call fall and sound quality increases. We hope you will check out the companies on the VOIP List.

Previous Daily Updates

Technology Investor Magazine continues to put together excellent research. On their list entitled the "Stock Picking Olympics" in their August 2000 edition they have identified 24 stocks that have each pumped out 4 straight quarters of earnings increases. We would like to share them with you here at the Bull Sector on what we will call the Earnings Bonanza List. The keyword search on this list is record earnings on the Earnings Bonanza List.

In the future this list will be accessed from the Bull Sector Technology List which also contains the stocks that allowed Fidelity Select Technology to score a 184% return in the year ended Feb. 29, 2000.

We would like to thank you all for making the time and effort of putting these lists together a pleasure simply by your continued use of the site to aid your own research.

Previous Daily Updates

July 19, 2000

The companies on this list could end up being tremendous winners both for investors and patients battling a war against cancer.

Cancer is the #2 cause of death in the United States costing the American economy a whopping $107 billion each year. Cancer drugs alone cost around $20 billion a year but that number will grow substantially to $30 billion by 2003 and even higher in the future. There are currently 175 new cancer products being developed by numerous companies. Technology Investor Magazine research indicates that the following six companies have the best shot of finding new blockbuster cancer drugs: Genentech (DNA), Human Genome Sciences (HGSI), IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH), Medarex (MEDX), Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM) and Protein Design Labs (PDLI). The Cancer Drug List also includes other companies that may cash in on the tremendous amount of money that is spent on this terrible disease if they develop their own blockbuster drugs. Check out the companies on the Cancer Drug List.

July 18, 2000

Is it possible that last mile problems have been solved through the use of fixed wireless technology? We believe it is and the companies on this list stand to benefit from their ability to deliver high-speed Internet access including voice and video without fiber optic cable. The FCC allows only a handful of licenses for fixed wireless. According to Insight Research, a telecom market research firm, this market that will grow from $197.1 million in 1999 to $1.52 Billon in 2004. That's a fat growth rate of 50.5% on an annual basis. These four companies are the main players because they are currently licensed to deliver broadband Internet access via fixed wireless technology: Advanced Radio Telecomm (ARTT), Nextlink Communications (NXLK), Teligent (TGNT) and Winstar Communications (WCII). Check out the stocks on the Fixed Wireless List.

July 17, 2000

Just a short note this evening to fans of the Bull Sector. Have you looked at the Bull Sector Biotech List lately? You should because it will definitely show just how quickly a sector can turn from Bull to Bear and back to Bull Market again. This week there will be two Genomics stocks IPOs'. Check them out on the Bull Sector Human Genome List.

We were really pleased with the action on WCAP and LDP today which we recommended yesterday. WCAP owns over 700,000 shares of CMRC which actually fell in today's trading. Anyway, it's nice to see market condition back where it pays to be a long investor. We'll try to get a new list together tomorrow.

Well it seems that we get to pat ourselves on the back just a little after mentioning FFIV in last night's update. The stock was up 9 7/16's today to 55 1/8 in regular trading showing a nice 20% gain! The market is really looking up and companies like FFIV that were hammered earlier for simply matching earnings estimates when we were in the midst of a Bear Market are now free to resume some rather lofty one day gains as investors resume their greedy ways. FFIV appears on the Bull Sector iTM List as a member of the Internet Traffic Management List. The stock pulled back some in after hours trading.

Well we got our Technology Investor Magazine yesterday and as usual they have done a bang up job of explaining some of the premiere stocks in some very interesting micro-sectors. The first one we would like to talk about is the EMS group. No we are not talking Emergency Medical Services!

The companies on the EMS List are Electronic Manufacturing Service Companies. EMS companies are contracted to make a wide variety of products like circuit boards, cell phones, computers, PDAs and set-top boxes for companies like Cisco, Dell, Scientific Atlanta, Ericsson among others. These companies improve manufacturing efficiency, consolidate purchasing and increase factory output and basically save the companies who outsource business to them. This can save an awful lot of expense because companies that used to do their own manufacturing can streamline their businesses and even sell their factories to EMS companies who then use the very same plants to manufacture and produce essentially the same products. According to Technology Forecasters EMS will grow 19.5% per year and total about $150 Billion by 2003. We hope you will check out the stocks on the EMS List it's not a long list but CLS, FLEX, JBL, SCI and SLR are all extremely profitable companies with excellent growth prospects ahead.

On the wireless front we recently picked up some shares of Amplidyne (AMPD) which can be found on our Wireless List among others at the Bull Sector today at 3 1/8. Amplidyne designs, manufactures and sells ultra linear power amplifiers and related subsystems to the worldwide wireless, local loop and satellite uplink telecommunications market. The company now has an Internet site designed to target the wireless market and we are awaiting the announcement of a new 11mbps system for high speed wireless internet access. The company itself is not profitable at this time but the small float with the stock trading near a 52 week low made it a reasonable risk to us. As always we remind you to do your own due diligence before purchasing any individual stock.

One more note of interest on the Wireless Sector is that we have heard that Fidelity will be opening a Wireless Sector Fund in the next few months. That certainly makes us feel great about the potential for future growth in the sector.

Previous Daily Updates

The Internet Stock Sector finally showed some signs of life today after YHOO reported earnings good enough to beat even their Whisper Numbers. A number of stocks in the Internet Sector showed fantastic one day percentage gains. This could be the start of a real summer rally.

Although no one will deny that many Internet Stocks will cease to exist in the next few years we know the Internet will still be here in a much more advanced form. Today Internet traffic continues to grow at exponential rates and there are only a handful of companies involved with attempting to manage the Internet Traffic. Perhaps that is why Cisco bought ArrowPoint Communications the #5 player in this space to assume number one position in the market and a 30% market share. The other major players along with CSCO in this market are Alteon WebSystems (ATON), F5 Networks (FFIV) and Foundry Networks (FDRY). FFIV looks like it could be a reasonable value in this market with a new product that could really help to us but you should do your own due diligence as always.

Now might be a very good time to take a good look at the short stock list on the Internet Traffic Management List.

As we mentioned the other day we received our Fidelity Select Annual Portfolio Report recently. It is our intention to add the stocks listed in the various Fidelity Select Portfolios to Bull Sector Lists. This will be a time consuming task but it will be worthwhile to those of you who take the time to peruse these lists now and in the future. After all the Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio was up 184.11% for the twelve month period that ended February 29, 2000. Naturally the market has corrected quite a bit since then but sector investing will once again one day be very lucrative all over again. When the money begins to flow back into the market the list of hot stocks you are looking for will likely be at the Bull Sector. Unfortunately it was pretty hard to find a hot sector today however when we checked the CBS MarketWatch List we found that the Airline group still had enough winners to be showing up in the plus column.

CBS MarketWatch Indexes.

Seeing some green on that Airline List had us consulting the Fidelity Select Airline Portfolio to make some new stock additions to our list. In addition we added some new sector lists in associated industries like the Aerospace & Defense List and the Trucking & Freight List.

We also added a new list of stocks from the Developing Communications Portfolio the Communications Equipment Stocks List.

Last night we also expanded the Healthcare List with a few new stocks and added the Medical Equipment and Supply Stocks List.

Recent additions include the following:

New Additions to the Fiber Optics, Semiconductor and the Paper and Forest Products List: May 15th, 2000

The tremendous need for bandwidth is driving growth for Fiber Optics companies of all kinds. Certainly high speed information will be driven down the Information Highway via many methodologies but Fiber Optics companies of all kinds will be big winners again when the market decides it is time to rally. There is simply too much demand so when we were asked to breakdown the companies into subgroups we went right to work. Please check out the companies on the Fiber Optics List and the additional companies described below.

If you would like to read about the subgroups have been broken down because the demand for bandwidth is simply growing too rapidly to ignore. Please look into the Fiber Optics Components List, the Fiber Optics Cable Producers List, the Fiber SANS List, and the Fiber Channel List.

We added as a subgroup to the Semiconductor List the Chip Foundry List.

These companies are involved in the manufacture and design of semiconductors. In a continued effort to reflect subgroups requested by our readers please explore the Flash Memory List, the Semiconductor Capital Equipment List and the Chip Foundry List. also includes Integrated Circuit manufactures and suppliers of various technologies to the industry.

There have also been a number of new additions to the Forest and Paper Products List.

Feel free to look back at some other recent additions

New Additions to the Biotechnology List: May 13th, 2000

After looking through the latest list of Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Stocks in the Annual Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio a number of new additions were made to the Biotechnology List at the Bull Sector. The stocks in this group have shown signs of recovering from the sell off earlier this year in the group. Here is the updated Biotechnology List.

In addition a new subgroup has been added to the Biotechnology List. It is a very interesting group of companies because Proteomics is an area where companies should benefit quite significantly from the Human Genome Project.

As most of you know the Human Genome Project is well underway but having a gene's sequence is only the first step. True knowledge of disease genes comes from understanding how those genes and their proteins function. Quite simply Proteomics studies the function of genes and their associated proteins in an attempt to correct diseases and target therapeutic drugs. The companies on the Proteomics List include some stocks involved in the Human Genome Project as well as companies that supply technologies to make Proteomics a faster more exacting science.

The Proteomics Stock List


ALXN through WAT

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No warranty or guarantee is given as to the completeness or thoroughness of these lists.
Please do your own due diligence.

New Lists from May 12th, 2000.

New Lists today: Please continue to contact us with suggestions: May 12th, 2000

We added three new lists on May 12th, 2000: Flash Memory, Cellular and Telephone Services

The Flash Memory List was added after we received a request from a reader. It looks like there are some very good reasons to look at this group of stocks. Flash memory chips could become a very important commodity this year. Demand for flash memory which is used to store data and programming algorithms in cell phones, digital cameras and MP3 music players is surging for the industry. Sales according to are expected to climb from $4.5 billion to $10 billion this year. Manufacturers such as Intel, AMD, Atmel and Fujitsu are expected to reap substantial profits but there will be many other winners.

The Flash Memory List

We received our Fidelity Select Annual Portfolio Report today and began to examine its components for some new stock list additions. The first two added today were the Cellular List and the Telephone Services List. The stocks on these lists also include a few we found on our own but rest assured most of these stocks were good enough for Fidelity to own a tremendous number of shares. We hope you will check them out.

The Cellular List

Telephone Services List

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